Hougang By-Eelection & Impact of Sajeeev & Dr Poh III

As political observer, this week seems to be very exciting with all the perfect dramatic twists unfolding right before the Hougang By-election.

While we were anticipating an "unexciting" fight in Hougang by-election, WP former Nee Soon GRC Indian candidate Sajeev made an announcement I do not know Mr Sajeev well but I have heard murmurs of discontent from the Malay and Indian WP members prior to Fazli's (Malay candidate of East Coast GRC in GE2011) resignation a couple of months ago. The issue is bigger than mere appointment of cadre membership. The Malays and Indians felt that they were unfairly treated and would have expected that being candidates of the party, they should become one of the major stakeholders of the party as cadres.

For the record, back in 2006, right after GE2006, all WP candidates who aren't cadres were made cadres immediately. The rationale is that if the party is confident enough to offer them as candidates during the General Elections, they should be entrusted as the core stakeholders of the party as cadres. NSP applied this rationale in post-GE2011 as well: all candidates who were not cadres were appointed as one shortly after the GE.

The issue of cadre membership is a sensitive and tricky one. Only cadre members are allowed to vote during the Ordinary Party Congress (OPC) to elect the CEC members every two years. Thus cadres must be trusted and tested members so to ensure that they will not end up with infighting later on. However, most of the time the appointment of cadre membership in most of the parties in Singapore is opaque and the powers lie on the CEC, particularly the SG or Chairman/President only. This will result in the possibility of entrenchment and monopoly of power in the long run.

I could empathize with Fazli's and Sajeev's feelings. Imagine as a candidate, you were not appointed as cadre while some members working in the background got appointed as one, how would you feel? I have even heard of members going around declaring that candidates are not as important as election agents and members playing supporting roles! This is pretty absurd to me, especially to think that Malay and Indian candidates are critical assets of the party.

No matter how many Chinese candidates you have, without sufficient Malay and Indian candidates, you won't be able to field all the Chinese candidates in GRCs at all. Ironically, from the accounts provided by Sajeev, it seems that WP has totally neglected in grooming its slates of Malays and Indians!

Sajeev's press statement has also revealed that Sylvia has made a very unfair remarks about Indian members would leave the party once appointed as cadre. There is no basis in this assertion, if it is really made by Sylvia. There were Chinese cadre members leaving the party as well. WP and Sylvia have made a statement in response to claim that it is absurd to accuse WP as racist. However Sylvia didn't deny categorically that she has made such remarks before.

I think that it is important to bear in mind that whether an organization is racially biased or not depends on the perception it projected upon others, especially those people from the minority races. If there are WP members feeling that they have been unfairly treated due to their race, it is ringing a dangerous alarm bell within.

Although most people would question the motive and timing of Sajeev's resignation but looking from another perspective, he has provided more insights and information on WP during the time when the voters need to help them assess each contesting parties fully.

Will his resignation and revelation of WP's inner working affect the outcome of this by-election? I don't think it will make a big impact on the results of this by-election. It would at most put a 2% to 3% dent on WP's overall result. However, this incident may have a longer term implications. WP may find itself harder to recruit better quality Malay and Indian candidates to fulfill their ambitions in next GE to contest more GRCs and crossing over to Tampines and Marine Parade.

Dr Poh Lee Guan's latest involvement in this Hougang by-election is pretty intriguing. According to WP's statement, they are not aware of Dr Poh's intention to contest in Hougang, WP will only nominate Png Eng Huat and Dr Poh is still a WP member. It basically means that Dr Poh has submitted his form of application for political donation certificate was not endorsed by WP.

Initially, some WP supporters were saying that Dr Poh is the backup candidate for WP but apparently this is not the case. WP didn't plan for it that way. Maybe Dr Poh was hoping that if there is anything happening to Png Eng Huat prior to nomination, he would take the opportunity to become his replacement as WP candidate. But the chances of this happening is very slim.

Beside, once this news is out about Dr Poh being granted the necessary certificate to contest, WP would not hesitate to take disciplinary actions against him (i.e. expulsion from the party). Thus the likelihood of Dr Poh contesting is very high.

It is no mystery that relationship between Dr Poh and the top WP leadership has been down in the doldrums for many years since GE2006. He was slowly sidelined and eventually edged out of the CEC in the OPC held in GE2010.

Dr Poh was once the political star in WP back in the early 2000s. He was fondly known as "Ah Poh" around Hougang and was very active in Hougang grassroot activities. He was once appointed as the Town Councillor of Hougang. All these changed after there was an argument over election strategy for GE2006.

Among the present slate of potential candidates WP has, Dr Poh has the highest visibility and personal recognition in Hougang beside Mr Low Thia Khiang and Sylvia Lim. If WP is looking for a matured candidate for Hougang, Dr Poh would naturally be the most appropriate choice. However, Png Eng Huat was chosen instead.

It would be natural for Dr Poh to feel disappointed by such decision. I am a little bit surprised that Dr Poh would go all out to contest in Hougang by-election against WP's will. He is not that kind of person who would take such a big risk. Nevertheless, I could fully understand his position if he really turns up at the nomination centre.

The impact of Dr Poh's decision to contest in Hougang By-election would be multidimensional. He will not merely be the key "third force" absorbing the swing votes from WP, his presence will also entrench doubts on WP's effectiveness in management. Due to his relatively higher personal profile in Hougang, he may suck up more votes from WP's core support rather than PAP's side. I will not be surprised if he could garner more than 12.5% of valid votes to keep his deposit in this by-election.

Taking into account of these new developments, my estimate of vote swing against WP may have to be readjusted downwards. I am expecting a higher number of spoil votes with a vote swing of 10% to 13% against WP. It will still win the elections even if its votes drop to below 50% but that would have very much wider implications on LTK's leadership.

Goh Meng Seng